Fallibilism

Everything we know was once a guess.

Everything we have yet to discover begins with another.

Fallibilism is a company working toward a future in which humans, agents and robots can discover more, understand more and accomplish more.

Our starting point is simple: our knowledge is incomplete. Our explanations can be wrong. Neither is a reason to stop. Both are reasons to keep building.

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A good idea is worth trying to break.Try it · move across the question

Our mission

Expand what intelligence can discover and accomplish.

We want to build software that extends the reach of intelligence: what it can find, what it can understand, and what it can do in the world.

That is a direction, not a claim that we have arrived. The products will change as we learn. The ambition reaches beyond any one of them.

How we think

Nothing beyond criticism. Everything open to improvement.

A good idea is worth taking seriously. It is also worth trying to break.

1We begin with a problem.
2Propose an explanation.
3Look for errors.
4Test what we can.
5Change what does not survive.

Being wrong is unavoidable. Refusing to correct an error is a choice.

Five windows into progress

Five windows into progress.

The experiments below are invitations to explore. Each opens onto a field where people have changed what we know, and where much remains unexplained.

Universe

How much can we learn from light?

Look at the sky, then look more closely. Light carries clues about worlds we may never reach. An observation can change our picture of the universe.

Redshift z 0.000Receding 0 km/s
Live · Galaxies flying apart, and the dark lines in their light sliding toward red. Ticks above the spectrum: the same lines measured in a lab.
  1. Ancient
    Lights on a turning sphere
    Stars as fixed points on a crystal shell around the Earth.
  2. 1584
    Bruno: the stars are suns
    A bold guess, with no way yet to test it.
  3. 1838
    Bessel measures a star's distance
    61 Cygni shifts as the Earth orbits: stars are far, real places.
  4. 1920
    The Milky Way is everything
    The Great Debate. Hubble's 1924 measurement of Andromeda ended it: other galaxies exist.
  5. 1929
    A static, eternal universe
    Hubble finds galaxies receding in proportion to distance. Space is expanding.
  6. 1965
    A beginning, still glowing
    Penzias and Wilson hear the afterglow of the early universe as noise in an antenna.
Hubble's law · 1929

The farther a galaxy, the faster it recedes. One line that turned the night sky into a history.

The moment · Paris, 1835Auguste Comte: we will never know what the stars are made of.

Twenty-four years later, Kirchhoff and Bunsen read the elements of the Sun from the dark lines in its light. The unknowable became a measurement.

Matter

What is the world made of?

An explanation meets an experiment. Something unexpected happens. The picture has to change. Even the familiar can conceal a deeper problem.

Particles fired 0Bounced back 0
Live · Rutherford's gold foil. Most particles pass straight through; a few bounce back off something tiny and dense: the nucleus. Rate exaggerated so you can see it.
  1. 450 BC
    Earth, air, fire, water
    Four elements, mixed in proportions. It explained everything, so it predicted nothing.
  2. 1808
    Dalton's solid atoms
    Elements combine in fixed ratios. Atoms are real, and indivisible.
  3. 1904
    Thomson's plum pudding
    The electron is found; the atom is a soft positive ball dotted with charges.
  4. 1911
    Rutherford's nucleus
    Almost all the mass sits in a tiny core. But orbiting electrons should spiral in.
  5. 1925
    Quantum mechanics
    Matter as waves of possibility. It powers every chip and laser.
Planck's relation · 1900

Energy comes in packets. Planck introduced them to fix one stubborn graph, and they rewrote physics.

The moment · Manchester, 1909–11Rutherford: as if you fired a shell at tissue paper and it passed through and it came back and hit you.

The particles that bounced back broke the plum pudding. The anomaly was the discovery.

Life

How does complexity emerge and change?

Variation, inheritance and selection connect the smallest changes to the diversity of life. Explaining that process opens further questions, including how it began.

Mutations 0Kept by selection 0
Live · DNA copying itself with occasional errors. Each error is a guess. Most are discarded; a few are kept and inherited.
  1. Ancient
    Species are fixed
    Each kind made once, unchanging, in its place on a ladder.
  2. 1809
    Lamarck: use and disuse
    Traits acquired in life are passed on. Close, but the mechanism was wrong.
  3. 1859
    Darwin and Wallace
    Natural selection. Right, but nobody knew how traits were carried.
  4. 1866
    Mendel's units of inheritance
    Genes, from pea plants. Ignored for 34 years, rediscovered in 1900.
  5. 1953
    The double helix
    Franklin's X-ray images; Watson and Crick's model. Inheritance is a code, copied by pairing.
Hardy–Weinberg · 1908

Without selection, gene frequencies hold still. Every departure from this line is evolution caught in the act.

The moment · 1862–1904Lord Kelvin, from the cooling of the Earth: too young for Darwin's evolution.

He was rigorous and wrong. Radioactivity, unknown in his day, keeps the Earth warm. One field corrected another.

Machines

How far can an idea extend our abilities?

A machine turns understanding into something we can use. Building it exposes new limits and new problems. Explanation and invention push each other forward.

Stage Hot expansionBest possible 40%
Live · Carnot's ideal engine between 500 K and 300 K: the piston, and its pressure and volume traced on the right. No engine can beat this loop.
  1. Ancient
    Muscle, wind and water
    Power limited to what grows, blows or flows.
  2. 1712
    Newcomen's engine
    Steam pumps water from mines, burning a mountain of coal to do it.
  3. 1769
    Watt's separate condenser
    The same work for about a quarter of the coal. The Industrial Revolution runs on it.
  4. 1831
    Faraday's induction
    Motion makes electricity, and electricity makes motion. Power can travel down a wire.
  5. Today
    Motors, batteries, robots
    Lithium batteries (Nobel Prize, 2019) and motors put machines on wheels, in homes and on factory floors.
Carnot's limit · 1824

No heat engine can do better. It holds for a steam engine, a car and a power station alike.

The moment · Paris, 1824Engines had worked for a century, and nobody could say why.

Sadi Carnot, aged 28, explained it: work comes from heat falling between two temperatures. His idea became entropy. Practice led; explanation made it boundless.

Computation

What can a machine do?

Simple rules can produce extraordinary consequences. Computing gives us a way to explore them, and raises questions about knowledge, creativity and intelligence itself.

Turing machine · state carry · step 0
Live · Above: a Turing machine counting in binary, one rule at a time. Below: transistors on one chip, 2,300 in 1971 to 208 billion in 2024; each line is a thousand times the last.
  1. 1930
    Every question can be settled
    Hilbert: mathematics would be complete, consistent, decidable.
  2. 1931–36
    Gödel and Turing prove limits
    Some truths cannot be proved; some questions no machine can decide. From that proof came the universal computer.
  3. 1958
    The perceptron will learn anything
    In 1969 Minsky and Papert showed what one layer cannot do. Funding froze.
  4. 1986
    Backpropagation
    Many-layered networks can learn, but computers were too slow to prove it.
  5. 2012–17
    Deep learning, then transformers
    Chips caught up. Networks learned to see in 2012; the transformer, in 2017, led to today's language models.
Shannon's entropy · 1948

Information, measured. Its form matches the entropy of heat engines, and every digital message since has been built on it.

The moment · Königsberg, 1930Hilbert: “We must know. We will know.” Everything is decidable.

At the same conference, a day earlier, the young Gödel had announced his proof that this was impossible. The refutation came first, and opened the field.

The connection

Progress does not stay inside its categories.

A discovery in one field can become an instrument in another. A better explanation can become a new capability. What once seemed unrelated can become the foundation of something new.

That possibility is why we build.

What we are building

Unfragile

Our first product. Not the limit of our ambition.

Unfragile's current focus is tool search and discovery for agents.

Our ambition for it is broader: a neutral search layer where humans, agents and robots can find trusted answers.

The current work is a beginning. We intend to develop it toward that larger purpose, while remaining willing to change direction as we learn.

Explore Unfragile →
An open end

This page is an explanation of what we intend to build. It is open to criticism too.

We expect to learn. We expect to change our minds. We intend to make those changes visible, with reasons rather than rewritten history.

There is more to discover.